Serie A Round 11 kicks off on Friday with Sassuolo hosting Benevento, must be accompanied by three accords on Saturday and six on Sunday AC Milan are 7-0-0 when passing at half-time Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Round 11 here
As we ability into Serie A Round 11 it’s AC Milan which sits at the top of the table with 26 pitches and undefeated at 8-2-0. With five units all within seven tops of the leaders though, the scoot for the Scudetto is still well in sight for many sides.
Earlier a goal-haven for neutrals and OVER bettors alike, scoring in Serie A has receded in recent weeks. Since Round 6, the following points weeks have visualized an average of 1.8, 2.4, 2.9 and 2.1 purposes tallied per match.
Betting road crews has also proved to be a profitable exertion as road crews are 15 -1 4-9( WDL) in the past four rounds.
Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Round 11 planned below.
Serie A Round 11 Odds
Matchup Home Draw Away Sassuolo vs Benevento -163 +350 +350 Crotone vs Spezia +150 +240 +170 Torino vs Udinese +175 +230 +150 Lazio vs Verona -167 +320 +425 Cagliari vs Inter Milan +600 +425 -275 Atalanta vs Fiorentina -150 +300 +375 Bologna vs Roma +260 +275 -110 Napoli vs Sampdoria -225 +333 +600 Genoa vs Juventus +700 +400 -275 AC Milan vs Parma -334 +450 +750
All odds taken Dec 9 at Bet3 65
Crotone vs Spezia
Two newly-promoted units congregate when 20 th-placed Crotone hosts 15 th-placed Spezia at 9:00 am EST Saturday morning. These teams know each other well from their time in Serie B. Last-place season each won on the road by 2-1 a value. During the 2018/19 season, Spezia made all three points in both tournaments, prevailing 3-0 on the road and 2-0 at home.
As the only winless team on the season, it’s clear that Crotone has striven more to acclimate to Italy’s transcend department so far. Rooted at the foot of the counter at 0-2-8( WDL) with simply six destinations orchestrated to go with 24 countenanced forms them a clearly defined candidate for immediate relegation back to Serie B.
— Lega Serie A (@ SerieA_EN) December 9, 2020
Being at home would appear to be an advantage for the Pythagoreans, nonetheless, they’ve actually exclusively tallied two of their six objectives on their own pitch. No matter how you slice it, one draft and two aims in five residence pairs is poor. But, it’s also hard to look past the treacherous slate of rivals they’d had to face at home. AC Milan, Juventus, Atalanta, Lazio and Napoli would commit any side issue, much less a newcomer.
Despite their scoring clashes,( they also have a league-worst expected points( xG) total of eight. 4 according to FBRef ), there could be some hope for improvement against a iffy Spezia backline. Spezia has acknowledged 19 destinations in their ten parallels, and own a 19 th-ranked expected purposes against( xGA) of precisely 19.
— Lega Serie A (@ SerieA_EN) December 7, 2020
Spezia actually owns the league’s seventh-best road record at 2-2-1 and has scored numerou destinations in four of five equals. A destination drag of 14 is not bad for the immigrants, with nine coming away from home. They are one of three crews to be leading the tournament with equals becoming OVER 2.5 totals at an 8-2 clip.
The Aquilotti also harbours an edge in average possession, photographs and fires on target over Crotone, so may actually carry the play in this match.
This should be a match both go into expecting to win in Serie A Round 11. No matter the result, with the residence advantage and the added impetus to make up ground in the relegation race, Crotone should value and we should determine a few destinations overall.
Pick: Both Teams to Score& Over 2.5 Aims (+ 105)
It’s third in the counter Napoli hosting 12 th-placed Sampdoria at 9:00 am EST Sunday morning.
Napoli has just three losses on the season and one came via default to Juventus. They’ve won three of their past four and two-straight after a 4-0 dismantling of Crotone last week. That followed a same 4-0 win over Roma the week prior. Precisely six points adrift of the summit they are right in the thick of the Serie A designation race behind Milan and Inter.
Napoli are the division’s second-highest scorers with 24 aims, smashing their xG of 17.1.
Sampdoria’s defense has been breached 17 experiences this season, and twice in each of their past four coincides. Those foes have included Cagliari, Bologna, Torino and Milan. Outside of Milan, that’s hardly a who’s who of the league’s nobility. They also gave three times to outsiders Benevento back in September.
Despite their defensive inadequacies, a purpose pull of fifteen is nice and they have valued at least formerly in eight of 10 matches.
But Claudio Ranieri’s Sampdoria inspects set to struggle on Saturday. They own the division’s worst median owned at precisely 42.3 -percent. Napoli should easily control the tempo of this join as they average 56.3 -percent possession.
Despite having represented one less sport due to their default against Juve, Napoli still has the most struggles( 161) and shootings on target( 65) of any team in Serie A. Those amounts are five and 16 better than the next closest squads in those categories. They should readily control the middle and attacking thirds of the tone where they grade fifth and third in strokes respectively.
How the table is looking after Round 10 in Serie A pic.twitter.com/ fnbuYtRLcL
— Italian Football TV (@ IFTVofficial) December 8, 2020
Also, a pre-match bet on this alone will render little appreciate. But should Napoli find themselves needing a destination in the second half of the year, an in-game bet on them to compose in the second-half may offer a good premium depending on how the accord is playing out. Napoli has tallied 66.7 -percent of their goals this year in the second half of the year. Only Sassuolo and Lazio have valued more second half goals.
With 11 objectives surrendered in the second half of the year, merely Spezia and Torino have acknowledged more points from instants 45 -9 0 than Sampdoria.
Sampdoria will have to make do with taking advantage of their counter opportunities and certainly are capable of scoring. But against a potent Napoli attack which should be buzzing all coincide, they are likely to concede a couple.
2020-2021 Serie A xG Leaders
Zlatan Ibrahimovic( 7.5) Romelu Lukaku( 6.7) Cristiano Ronaldo( 5.5) Edin Dzeko( 5.1) Henrikh Mkhitaryan( 5.1) Fabio Quagliarella( 5.0) Andrea Belotti( 4.2) Ciro Immobile( 4.1) https :// t.co/ BEDPCozOP4
— [?][?] FBref.com [?][?] (@ fbref) December 9, 2020
The fact Napoli will have played Thursday in the Europa League against Real Sociedad could action Gennaro Gattuso into some rotation. This could leave a small boost to Sampdoria in the lethargy department.
I’d be happy with a Napoli win where they value OVER 1.5 squad purposes at -1 50 stranges. But for a little more value a Napoli win and OVER 2.5 total match destinations is my best bet.
Pick: Napoli Win& Over 2.5 Objectives in Match (+ 100)
AC Milan vs Parma
Serie A Round 11 concludes with 1st-place Milan hosting 16 th-placed Parma at 2:45 pm EST Sunday afternoon.
At home and five points clear of the next closest challengers for the summit, it’s no surprise the Rossoneri are ponderous -3 34 favorites for the triumph against two-win Parma. That toll is obviously too short so let’s look for some better value.
Milan has orchestrated the most aims in the league at 23, while also owning the highest xG at 24.2. They’ve created the second-most aims and fifth-most fires on target. They are sure to control the play, averaging 54.2 -percent possession compared to Parma’s 44.3 -percent.
Milan are currently enjoying an incredible run of 22 -straight parallels undefeated in Serie A performance. That flash extended after last weekend’s 2-1 superhighway win over Sampdoria, their third-straight victory.
Those 22 matches have also seen them score multiple aims 21 ages. That’s amazing. During the current campaign, they’ve sustain scavenge membranes in three of five home joins while outscoring foes 12 -5.
But they also get down to quick starts which could articulate Parma behind the eight clod early. Milan owns the best first-half record in the organization at 7-2-1( WDL ), scoring 11 points and conceding really four. While Parma grades 14 th in first-half answers at 2-5-3, valuing four and admitting eight.
In those seven competitions in which Milan have been contributing at the half, they’ve yet to remove items, going on to win all seven. Parma, when being behind at the half, have gone on to lose twice, while extort once.
Milan will be in action Thursday in the Europa League against Sparta Prague. But it would seem Stefano Pioli plans to rotate on Thursday and be fresh come the weekend for Serie A Round 11.
#ACMilan coach Stefano #Pioli has claimed Zlatan #Ibrahimovic is’ feeling better’ and fortified he will rotate the team against #SpartaPrague with Rafael #Leao who is back in the force after an injury. https :// t.co/ mBeKFDNGpG #SpartaPragueMilan #UEL #SerieA #Calcio #Milan pic.twitter.com/ ylXVGcVKen
— footballitalia (@ footballitalia) December 9, 2020
Last season Milan were 3-1 winners at home and 1-0 champions apart against Parma. It’s a head-to-head they have enjoyed of late owning a 5-1-0( WDL) record against the Crusaders in the past six meetings.
Against top rival on the road Parma has conceded several goals to each of Inter Milan( 2-2 move) and AS Roma( 3-0 loss ).
For me, there are a few ways to find value in a Milan win in Serie A Round 11. A Milan win to nil at +125 certainly offers importance but can always be dangerous. Instead, I would look to a Milan win by two destinations or to bet them on the half-time/ full-time busines to be leading at the half and likewise at the end of the game.
Pick: Milan -1. 5( -1 03) or Milan half-time/ full-time( -1 20)
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