The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with further contribution from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Preceding Off
* MN-0 1: Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn announced on Friday that his campaign had drilled deep into the earth’s crust to uncover a Harper Polling survey from the late Jurassic period that paleontologists say indicates he might once have accommodated a lead on his Democratic dissident in the November general election, Dan Feehan.
Scholars were quick to note, however, that the ballot, which bore hazy brands indicating it had been in the field in early March, was apparently attended before a single territory had gone on lockdown, before 120,000 Americans died as a consequence of a deadly pandemic, before the economy cratered at moves and to breadths ever been seen, before a big shift affirming police savagery brush through “the two countries “, and perhaps before Homo sapiens split off from Homo erectus, heralding the sunrise of modern humanity.
A more recent poll, made for Feehan during the present geologic age, established the Democrat with a restrict 43 -4 2 edge.
Election Changes
Please bookmark our litigation tracker for a ended collection of the further development of every lawsuit involving changes to election and voting procedures.
* Delaware: Delaware’s Democratic-run state Senate has passed a money that would allow all voters to request absentee ballots without an excuse for any election this year, including the state’s Sept. 15 downballot primary and the November general election. The state House, which is also run by Democrat, recent elapsed the same bill. Delaware State News says that Democratic Gov. John Carney will ratify the measure.
* Georgia: Georgia’s Republican-run legislature is advancing a proposal that would bar Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and local election officials from sending unsolicited absentee ballot lotions to voters. Raffensperger forwarded lotions to all active registered voters before the state’s June 9 primary, a move that Republican lawmakers, peculiarly state House Speaker David Ralston, vehemently opposed.
* Iowa: Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds has signed a statement restricting Republican Secretary of State Paul Pate’s ability to send absentee ballot works to all voters, as he did before the state’s June 2 primary. Pate will now need to seek approval for any emergency election varies from Iowa’s Legislative Council, body comprising representatives of 11 Republicans and nine Democrat that is empowered to act on behalf of the legislature when it isn’t in session.
Senate
* AL-Sen: On behalf of a private buyer, the Democratic conglomerate ALG Research is out with a examination that pictures Democratic Sen. Doug Jones narrowly trailing his two prospective Republican foes. Former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions edges Jones 45 -4 3, while former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville has a similar 47 -4 4 lead against the incumbent.
This is the third poll we’ve seen here in the last few days. Jones’ campaign recently put a mid-May survey from FM3 that evidenced him with an identical 47 -4 4 lack against Tuberville; Periods, who is the underdog in the July 14 primary runoff, was not researched. The Republican firm Cygnal, which did not have a client, abruptly secreted its own survey explain Discussions and Tuberville beating Jones 45-35 and 50 -3 6, respectively.
* CO-Sen: SurveyUSA is out with a poll of Tuesday’s Democratic primary for Colorado Politics and KUS-ATV Denver, and it imparts former Gov. John Hickenlooper a wide 58 -2 8 extend over ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. The only other canvas we’ve seen here all time was a mid-June survey from Myers Research& Strategic Services for Romanoff that found Hickenlooper onward 51 -3 9
* KS-Sen: Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach has launched what the GOP firm Medium Buying says is his first broadcast TV commercial-grade ahead of the August Republican primary.
The ad affirms that Rep. Roger Marshall “asked President Trump to let in 83,000 immigrants to make American jobs.” It then presents a long clip of racist scholar Lou Dobbs insisting that “RINOS in the House of Representatives today apparently would prefer President Trump not be elected … by bring back more foreign workers in the face of 40 million unemployed Americans.” Kobach then seems and debates he’ll “protect American chores for American workers.”
* ME-Sen: State House Speaker Sara Gideon, the leading Democrat in this year’s race against Sen. Susan Collins, has launched a brand-new ad propagandizing back on recent Republican attacks that she was too slow to take action against a position representative and teach appointed Dillon Bates who had been accused of having erroneou relationships with his students.
Speaking instantly to the camera, Gideon tells onlookers, “The truth is, I was the first person to call on the mood representative to abdicate when evidence of misconduct was uncovered. And as the mother of two sons and one daughter, I quality our children’s safety more than anything else.” Gideon concludes, “To show otherwise is not only false, it’s way over the line.”
In August of 2018, The Bollard reported that Bates had “engaged in at least three dreamy and/ or sexual relationships with high school girls over the past half decade.” That very same day, Gideon responded by calling for Bates, who earlier in the year had said he would not seek re-election, to quit immediately.
A spokeswoman for Gideon acknowledged that the speaker had known about the allegations for “several months, ” but that she had not noted any proof to back them up at the time. Gideon’s office supplemented, “At that pitch, we told Rep. Bates that if any evidence or new information was presented that indicated there could be truth to what was then a rumor, that we would ask him to vacate immediately.”
Police in Westbrook, where Bates cultivated as a teacher, told WMTW after The Bollard article was published that they could not verify the allegations and were not actively analyse him. Bates maintained his innocence but quitted shortly afterwards.
In mid-June, the NRSC launched an ad criticizing Gideon for her response and recently began airing a second similar discern. The committee has reported spending just shy of$ 3 million since the start of the month, where reference is first began airing ads in this race.
* SC-Sen: While Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham still looks like the solid favorite to earn re-election in this red state, he recently went up with a commercial-grade against Democrat Jaime Harrison. Graham’s allies at Security is Strength PAC did launch an ad against Harrison back in March and later reserved $ 1.6 million in air time for the final weeks of information campaigns, but this appears to be the first time that the Graham campaign has extended negative on TV.
* Senate: Fox is out with surveys of three different Senate races from the Democratic firm Beacon Research and the Republican pollster Shaw& Company Research 😛 TAGEND
G-ASen-A: David Perdue( R-inc ): 45, Jon Ossoff( D ): 42( 47 -4 5 Biden)
NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham( D ): 39, Thom Tillis( R-inc ): 37( 47 -4 5 Biden)
TX-Sen: John Cornyn( R-inc ): 46, MJ Hegar( D ): 36; John Cornyn( R-inc ): 47, Royce West( D ): 37( 45 -4 4 Biden)
The only other canvas we’ve seen since Jon Ossoff won the June 9 Democratic primary was a Public Policy Polling survey for Ossoff’s allies at End Citizens United and Let America Vote that showed him ahead 45 -4 4.
We’ve seen very little polling all time of the Texas Senate race. The Democratic nomination will be decided in the July 14 primary runoff.
Gubernatorial
* UT-Gov: Dan Jones& Accompanied is out with another referendum of Tuesday’s Republican primary for the Salt Lake Chamber, and it finds things are as close as ever. Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox touches a tiny 30 -2 9 shape against former Gov. Jon Huntsman, while ex-state House Speaker Greg Hughes is firmly in third place with 15%; the fourth nominee, onetime state party chair Thomas Wright, takes exactly 6 %. Dan Jones’ early June survey for the Salt Lake Chamber had Huntsman conducting Cox 35 -3 3.
* V-AGov: In an interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch, onetime nation Sen. Bill Carrico acknowledged that he was considering trying the Republican nomination in next year’s contest to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam. Carrico said that he expects to announce his means this September or October.
Carrico, who is a former state trooper, retired in 2019 after performing practically two decades in the government parliament representing heavily Republican southwestern Virginia. Carrico declared that his opposition to calls to defund the police “is one of the driving forces for my designs on coming back” into politics.
House
* G-A1 4: If you thought racist QAnon zealot Marjorie Greene couldn’t perhaps get any worse, thoughts again. Greene is out with a commercial for the August Republican runoff where she praises Garrett Rolfe, the former Atlanta police officer who faces murder indictments for killing Rayshard Brooks this month. Greene tells the audience, “Officer Garrett Rolfe faces a death penalty for protecting himself and doing his job. I stand with patrolman Rolfe against the Democrat war on police.”
Greene then goes after her intra-party opponent, neurosurgeon John Cowan, by demonstrating a excerpt of Cowan wearing a face mask. Greene says, “John Cowan is silent, because John Cowan is too timid, too weak, and too afraid to speak the truth.”
* NJ-0 2: A group announced General Majority PAC that is affiliated with South Jersey Democratic boss George Norcross has spent $ 210,000 on ads supporting political science professor Brigid Callahan Harrison ahead of the July 7 primary.
Harrison could use the help, since she’s been decisively outspent by her main intra-party opponent, mental health advocate Amy Kennedy. Kennedy outpaced Harrison about $750,000 to $275,000 from April 1 to June 17, which is the time the FEC defines as the pre-primary period; Kennedy too had $235,000 left for the final weeks, while Harrison had less than $10,000 on-hand.
On the GOP side, Trump-backed Rep. Jeff Van Drew faces an underfunded challenge from industrialist Bob Patterson, but the party-switching incumbent appears to be taking his first Republican primary dangerously. Van Drew outspent Patterson $410,000 to $82,000 during the course of its pre-primary period, and he had a huge $1.1 million to $48,000 cash-on-hand lead.
* NY-2 4: The Democratic radicals House Majority PAC and the DCCC are each out with canvas that present Democrat Dana Balter narrowly guiding Republican Rep. John Katko in their second bout in this Syracuse-area seat. HMP’s survey from Normington Petts gives Balter a 47 -4 6 line, while Joe Biden routs Donald Trump 56 -4 0 here. The DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department’s in-house poll, meanwhile, catches Balter and Biden ahead48-45 and 54 -3 6, respectively. Katko beat Balter 53 -4 7 last cycle.
Perhaps the biggest question about this scoot is whether Biden can decisively win this district after it devoted the last few years racing towards the right. Barack Obama carried this sit 57 -4 1, which is similar to Biden’s margin in both sets of surveys, but Hillary Clinton took it simply 49 -4 5 four years later. In 2018, Republican Marc Molinaro even defeated Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo 47 -4 4 now as he was losing statewide 60 -3 6. Katko has always run ahead of the GOP ticket, but if the seat is dramatically shifting back towards Team Blue like these two canvas say, he could struggle to win enough crossover voters to stay afloat.
* OK-0 5: While the anti-tax Club for Growth has not endorsed anyone in Tuesday’s multitude Republican primary to face Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn, it’s spending $ 217,000 on an ad campaign is targeted at stopping regime Sen. Stephanie Bice. The commercial testifies, “Bice handed out your imposition dollars to Hollywood liberals to establish movies. Fine tribes like imprisoned rapist and Democrat donor Harvey Weinstein experienced $4.6 million in the giveaway platform Bice backed.” The spot likewise accuses Bice of having “voted for the single most important tax increase in Oklahoma history.”
Bice quickly responded with a commercial foreground the Club’s opposition to Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican primary, which is a strategy we’ve seen in a few other Republican primaries this year. The narrator argues, “Now the same bunch of open margin Never Trumpers is attacking Stephanie Bice. Because Bice stands with President Trump.”
There are nine Republican on Tuesday’s ballot, and it’s going to be difficult for anyone to win the majority of the vote they’d need to avoid an August runoff in this Oklahoma City-based seat. There’s no clear frontrunner, though both Bice and self-funding businesswoman Terry Neese each expend the most during the course of its pre-primary period( April 1 to June 10) by deploying about $385,000 each. Businessman David Hill spent about $230,000 during this time, while former territory School Superintendent Janet Barresi descent $215,000.
* P-A1 6: Democrat Kristy Gnibus is out with a poll arguing that she has an opening against Republican Rep. Mike Kelly in this conservative northwest Pennsylvania seat. The Public Policy Polling survey gives Kelly a 48 -4 0 advantage, while Donald Trump heads exactly 49 -4 5 in a quarter he carried 58 -3 8 four years earlier.
While those presidential amounts would mark a huge swing to the left from 2016, the issue is probable if 2020 is a strong year for Democrats. Harmonizing to Bloomberg’s Greg Giroux, Gov. Tom Wolf carried this sit 49.5 -4 8.8 in 2018, while Democratic Sen. Bob Casey lost it by a modest 52 -4 7 margin. Kelly himself exclusively won re-election by that same 52 -4 7 spread last-place cycle.
* TX-1 3: Ag Together PAC, which has been running positive ads for publicist Josh Winegarner ahead of the July 14 Republican runoff, is now out with a commercial-grade starting after former White House physician Ronny Jackson. The place declares that Jackson “only moved to Amarillo last descend, just in time to run for office.” The narrator also says that Jackson was “paid thousands by a Hong Kong investor, ” though he doesn’t go into any further detail.
After arguing that Jackson was “part of Obama’s inner circle, ” the narrator too talks about the allegations that forestalled Jackson’s 2018 nomination to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs. “As a physician, ” the ad continues, “Jackson supposedly handed out so many prescription drugs, they announced him ‘Candy Man.'” Winegarner also recently began airing places attacking Jackson, who has Donald Trump’s promotion, as a carpetbagger with several moralities issues.
* TX-2 4: VoteVets has launched a $100,000 cable TV buy supporting Air Force veteran Kim Olson in the July 14 Democratic runoff. The place praises Olson for being “one of the first ladies to pilot an Air Force jet and bid a flying squadron.” The narrator likewise extols Olson for having “investigated sex misbehavior in the service” and curing thousands of women ex-servicemen get healthcare.
* UT-0 1: Kerry Gibson got some bad news time ahead of Tuesday’s Republican primary when territory Auditor John Dougall announced that, in response to whistleblower objections, he’d launched an investigation into difficulties that occurred during Gibson’s nine months preceding the commonwealth Department of Agriculture and Food. The Salt Lake Tribune writes that during Gibson’s short-lived term “staff shake-ups made a fee on morale, hasten spend croaked up and business examines flagged a spike in procedural errors.”
* V-A0 5: Democrat Cameron Webb’s allies at 314 Action are out with a overlook from Public Policy Polling that gives Republican Bob Good a small 43 -4 1 rim over Webb in this south-central Virginia district. This is the first investigation we’ve seen here since Webb pulled off an tremendou winning in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for this 53-42 Trump seat.
Mayoral
* Miami-Dade County, FL Mayor: The mood SEIU has endorsed County Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava in the August nonpartisan primary for this open seat.
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