I’m going to assume that most WagerBop books once know what goes into the “2-legged” Champions League format. But not everyone understands it- in fact I didn’t perfectly get wise until a few years ago. So let’s( very briefly) summary what speculators are and are not wagering on prior to the back end of this UEFA cycle’s Round of 16.

As discussed in our 2020 Endorses League futures-odds analysis, a plunger lives to fight another daytime if her pick-to-win the rivalry loses an opening leg. Points from the 1st and 2nd pairs( with alternating host-venue advantage) between Round-of-1 6 dissidents are counted together as an “aggregate” total, and the golf-club with more points after 180+ hours of football wins and advances to the semifinals. That’s easy enough, but what if there’s an aggregate standstill at the end of the 2nd leg?

UEFA uses the “away objectives convention, ” a tie-breaker in which the society that has valued more purposes at the opponent’s stadium wins if the teams’ aggregate goal totals are alike. Prior to the rule’s implementation, overseers would often call for staid, conservative game plan whenever their teams opened the round on the road. A proceed result in the opening leg set up a “winner take all” match at home, sometimes with the aid of yellow and red posters taken by a disappointed resist which had tried to troop the issue.

If neither side has composed more apart goals, however, and aggregate tallies are drawn after the 2nd leg, the societies go to a penalty-kick round, or “penalties” to determine a victor.

Gamblers do not bet on multiple legs or an aggregate win unless selecting special marketplaces like a “to-advance” prop betting boundary. Moneylines, totals, and spreads on each leg are simply for that day’s( or evening’s) match.

However, that does not mean the result of the 1st leg doesn’t play heavily into bookmaking and handicapping tricks going into the 2nd leg.

Take Chelsea F.C. for instance- among my( ahem) wonderful long-shot recommendations to advance in the Champions League. Newbies may be confused to see Pensioners at (+ 700) curious to win the upcoming fixture with Bayern Munich at Allianz Arena given that Stern des Sudens cruised 3-0 at Stamford Bridge in the opening leg. Wouldn’t the 3-goal deficit make it almost impossible for Chelsea to come back and win on aggregate purposes? Yes, of course. But if the Premier League club happens to upset Bayern 1-0 or 2-1 or even 3-0 on March 18 th, triumphing the debate but losing the conflict, the underdog ML still pays off. Arguably, Chelsea has better chances to win the leg- not the round- given that FCB has a cushy lead and can get away with a lack of urgency on the attack. Bettors must consider not only the form of each club, but the outcome of the 1st equal and the circumstances crews find themselves in as a result.

There are plenty of closer aggregate composes than 3-0 halfway through the round. Even a 1-goal result in an opening leg is nevertheless acutely change tactical selects in the 2nd leg- and the tactics of the 2nd leg can change the programme around totals and spreads in addition to being able to moneyline odds-to-win.

Where is the smart cash going with about a week to go before the next kickoff?

Score following opening leg included next to all match-ups. Since the WagerBop team is once again splitting UEFA prophecies , not all accords are in chronological order. Keep scrolling until you find your favorites!

RB Leipzig vs Tottenham Hotspur( 1-0)

If there’s a blueprint for how an loser can successfully open a 2-legged round against a quality club, “Red Bulls” of Leipzig drew it up on February 19 th. Proddings has made progress with famed manager Mourinho at the helm, but when serious injuries to Harry Kane struck Tottenham at a bad time( is there ever a good time to lose a star striker ?) and action Spurs into a 4-4-2 shaping with Lucas Moura and young Dele Alli up front, the visitors from Bundesliga took advantage with a disciplined game plan. Red Bulls were physical enough in the opening leg, making 17 clogs and a handful of yellow cards. But the German fraternity also owned the dance nearly 60% of the competitor and did not allow Spurs a solace zone on the attack. Tottenham advocates groaned as a penalty kick found the net behind Hugo Lloris in the 2nd half, means that the English side must out-score Leipzig on the road to earn a quarterfinal bid.

1-goal outcomes don’t matter quite as much vis-a-vis the away-goals rule when it’s only 1-0.( If you’ve given up multiple away goals to a strong opponent, as Chelsea has, that’s another story .) Tottenham can advance with a 1-0 win and a successful penalty round at Red Bull Arena on March 10 th. Spurs had the opportunity to prevail the 2nd accord 2-1 and improvement thanks to scoring 2 apart goals to Leipzig’s 1.

Bookmakers do not like Mourinho’s chances to steer a wounded lineup past Red Bulls before Kane or Heung-min Son can return to the slope. It doesn’t help that Spur are taking criticism after losing to Wolves in a domestic conference join. Still, at least 2 speculation sells on the 2nd leg that were presented mispriced. Bovada Sportsbook’s 4-to-1 wire on Tottenham is awfully long for a pavilion U.K. sorority against any German team not announced Bayern Munich( although there is Red Bulls are giving FCB a run for the Bundesliga title this season ). Likewise, the Under( 2.5) comes with a (+ 105) payoff, a magnanimous price that overlooks the likelihood of Leipzig trying to defend its course to the quarterfinals and prevent a winning aggregate goal from Tottenham- peculiarly if the fixture is deadlocked at 1-1 midway through the 2nd half.

Pick: Tottenham (+ 390) or Under

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid( 0-1)

There are 2 academies of believe on handicapping crews still playing in more than 1 prestigious competition. Some’ cappers prefer to look at the totality of a club’s record, others believe it’s more logical to focus on what they’ve been doing in the event at hand. It’s true that directors propose differently and squads perform differently in league play and in tournaments( let’s face it, they call it a Champions League but it’s truly a big round-robin+ knockout bracket with simply a 6-game “season”) with some sororities( like Man City) focusing more on winning Europe and some more determined to prevail on their domestic table.

But it would be silly to overlook what just happened to Liverpool. With less than a dozen joins to go in a heretofore-unbeaten 2019 -2 0 EPL campaign, Reds stopped 3 points in a stunning 0-3 arise against Watford. Hornets had acquired a stately total of 5 times in 27 joins prior to Saturday’s upset.

Is it a stroke loss that they are able to simply persuasivenes Liverpool’s resolve in leg# 2 against an Atletico Madrid already heading by a aim? Or are there serious issues at Anfield right now? Jurgen Klopp is telling the media that he’d be foolhardy to question groupings of participates who could still readily transcends Man City’s record for most acquires in a Premier League season. But the team hasn’t had a cracking performance- at least not vis-a-vis the end result- since outdo Saints 4-0 on February 1st. Word has it Klopp has his eye on a lineup boost, potentially ratifying the attacking midfielder Jack Grealish away from Villa.

I’d pick the Spanish side at current (+ 650) peculiars, but I have to believe Wines will be back on top of things by the time the competitor on March 11 th buns around.

Pick: Liverpool( -1) AT Manchester City vs Real Madrid( 2-1)

Now here’s a Champions League gambling line that I fail to understand. Real Madrid is a 4-to-1 loser to value more points than Man City at City of Manchester Stadium on March 17 th.

Remember, the teams’ agendas in the match are as important as relative ability, rush, and caliber. City won the opening leg 2-1 which means that Real Madrid can value a purpose, berth a clean-living expanse, and still lose without even going to penalty kicks. Sky Blues would have orchestrated more away points in that scenario.

No, that doesn’t mean City is necessarily less likely to win or suck. However, it does mean if the visitors from La Liga nurse a 1-0 induce in the 2nd half, Pep Guardiola’s side will be more concerned with represent than composing- City won’t need an equalizer to improvement. Real’s moneyline could win with a pyrrhic 1-goal advantage on the scoreboard which still eliminates the organization from UEFA contention.

Are we ignoring Sergio Ramos’ red poster? The Los Blancos defender perpetrated what was regarded an outrageous fumble on Gabriel Jesus of Man City late in Sky Blues’ comeback win in the opening leg on 2/26. That intends he can’t appear on 3/17, although there is the society is busy appealing the decision. However, my handicap of Real’s (+ 400) peculiars has little to do with a scenario in which Citizens are pulping for goals and merely a renowned back 4 is tasked with somehow holding off the multitudes. It could still happen, but the likelihoods are lessened due to circumstances.

Last but not least, a starting 11 that pieces appoints like Eden Hazard, Luka Modric, and Gareth Bale won’t be unable to compete with Manchester City even if the officer is missing.

Pick: Real Madrid

Bayern Munich vs Chelsea F.C.( 3-0)

We have seen insane upsets and surprise solutions this season involving the top sororities in European football. Watford over Liverpool. Norwich City over Man City. Paris Saint-Germain giving up 2 objectives in 3 minutes to lose to Grey Poupon Dijon FCO.

However, I am convinced we will not see a stunning outcome in Munich on March 18 th. For a start, the injuries been incurred by Pensioners was tantamount to a nightmare Frank Lampard can’t do anything about- Chelsea’s current transport regulations have helped to create a perfect storm. The lineup get greener and greener as hour gone on. It’s not as if a healthful English side had a bad daytime and lost 0-3 with a fighting chance to recover. At this spot, Blues boosters are just hoping the association can hold on and finish high enough on the domestic table and earn a pavilion UEFA bid in 2020 -2 1.

Bayern is also working to reestablish dominance in Bundesliga, poised at 1st on the table and having suffered exclusively 1 loss across all races since early December.

But again, you’ve got to question whether there are ML gamblers out there who- this would be really stupid- are speculation on Bayern’s market while not realizing it’s for the pair , not the aggregate. Chelsea’s odds-to-win are (+ 700) which performs ability in an intuitive course, since the squad is not having a great last few weeks of wintertime and its supporters are depressed. That could change by the 18 th, though, and Chelsea “winning” 1-0 or 2-1 in Munich wouldn’t bother Bavarians all that mischievously. The German side would still waltz into the Champions League quarterfinals without divulging a sweat.

Draw (+ 400) appears to be the best bet though. I can see Bayern manager Hansi Flick deciding that resting players from his top 11 in a cautious 2nd half( formerly Chelsea needs something like 3 or 4 aims in 20 minutes to advance) is more important than pure quality on movies around the opposing chest. Blue-bloodeds may compose a “consolation” goal or 2 to draw the accord even if FCB out-plays Willy Caballero’s backline again.

At the risk of pounding an obvious degree, unless something special happens in the opening 45+ times this fixture is likely to be “academic” by the end.

The live Over market may also be a great halftime pick if Chelsea copes an unlikely 1-0 or 2-0 advantage and stirs-up a pitched battle. Bavarians are likely to roar if that occurs.

Pick: Draw

There’s exclusively 1 adult at WagerBop who’s qualified to tout a slay of rapid-fire equals outside of the Premier League’s purview, and that’s Nikola Velickovic. Below are Nikola’s recommended stakes on 4 upcoming Round of 16 follow-up legs- Valencia vs Atalanta on March 10 th, PSG vs Borussia Dortmund on March 11 th, Juventus vs Lyon on March 17 th, and Barcelona vs Napoli on March 18 th.

Valencia vs Atalanta( 1-4)

After being trashed 4-1 in Milan three weeks ago, the At-bat are in one hell of a trouble. Having to shoot a three-goal deficit against the most efficient attack of the Serie A, was pretty improbable. Valencia lastly won hitting Betis, 2-1, stopping a five-game losing streak. Meanwhile, La Dea once again showcased its awesome offensive arsenal, compressing seven aims against Lecce on the road. It was their fifth straight-shooting acquire, and during that pull, they’ve composed 21 points. So, we will focus on objectives here, because the multitudes have to chase the result, and on the other side, we have an excellent offense.

Over 1.5 points in the second half of the year sits at -1 50.

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund( 1-2)

Paris Saint Germain is awaiting Borussia Dortmund, and it seems that the Saints can’t wait for the match to begin. They want to make up for the loss at Signal Iduna Park, and to prove their reviewers that it was just a bad nighttime , good-for-nothing more than that. A 2-1 loss ought to be reachable for goalscoring machinery from Parc des Ruler. Precisely look at their efficiency in recent times; they rarely composed under four goals in one match.

PSG to win with -1. 5 aim Asian Handicap is +150, and that is our select here.

Juventus vs Lyon( 0-1)

The Old Lady doesn’t have any rook for forecasts. They need to win. And they need to do it by at least two-goal margin. Lyon has a 1-0 lead from the first 90 instants, and keep in mind that the French line-up has its qualities, peculiarly when playing on the counter-attacks. This join is likely to be the eventual assessment for Maurizio Sarri, whose plight in Juve is not certain anymore. The followers are not subscribing him as before, and there are some rumors that the chemistry in the locker apartment is also bad.

Still, we don’t believe that there would be a startle now, which is why we bet on Juve to win with an Asian Handicap 1.5 goals. Curious are at +120.

Barcelona vs Napoli( 1-1)

Barcelona suffered a nasty defeat at Santiago Bernabeu. Real was better than Blaugrana and pranced over them in the stands. That is why coach Setien needs to lift the fighting spirit of his boys ASAP and prepare them for the battle with Napoli. Otherwise, things are not going to be very pleasant or the Spanish powerhouse. Napoli has just one overcome and a outline with seven earns over the past nine affairs, and the form of this crew is going upwards. All in all, this is the biggest challenge for Barcelona since the campaign started. They do search precarious, but we strongly believe that Messi and the co. have what it takes to defeat this rival.

We go halftime/ fulltime Barca for the quirkies at +105.

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