Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Dylan: What do you compile of Brodie Van Wagenen being the frontrunner for Met GM? Is this a good mind or is the lack of know-how too much to overcome?
Jeff Sullivan: Give me frame it this lane: I am excited by the prospect of a crew making such an outside-the-box hire. But if I were a Mets fan, I’d prefer to have Bloom, because I wouldn’t crave my team to be an experiment
Elwood: Are you still watching the Senators this year? As an Avalanche fan that went through 16 -1 7 I can tell you I’ve never learned more from a season.
Jeff Sullivan: They haven’t been dreadful yet!
Chele: Has anyone ever looked into whether or not a FA can actually perform himself money in the playoffs?( I’m not exactly sure how that could be quantified but what am I, a scientist ?)
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the playoffs can ever make or undermine a free agent, but there are certain cases where you can definitely see that someone was given a boost
Jeff Sullivan: Daniel Murphy was given a healthier contract after blitzing through the first two rounds in 2015
Jeff Sullivan: And I think last year’s playoffs did well should be pointed out that Brandon Morrow certainly was a brand-new pitcher
Jeff Sullivan: This era being what it is, execs aren’t going to overreact to a sizzling two or three weeks. But if there’s something statistical that illustrates science or the process of improving October, that won’t start unnoticed
Lilith: Please rank the recent manager hires: Bell/ Reds, Montoyo/ Jays, Baldelli/ Twins, Ausmus/ Angels … Which hires do you like the most? The least?
Jeff Sullivan: With the caveat that I don’t know anything, I like Baldelli. I likewise like Montoyo. I’m open to the idea that Ausmus has advanced since his last opportunity. Bell interests me the least. Which is not to say that he’ll has become a bad director, but I don’t yet see anything rousing over there
Xolo: What’s a realistic return the Clergymen could get if they sell from their outfield breadth?
Jeff Sullivan: I think they could get a pretty interesting starting pitcher if they moved Margot or Reyes. Don’t think Renfroe would be that highly valued yet, and Cordero is super talented but he’s coming off a lost season
Jaff: What squad would be a good fit for Whit Merrifield?
Jeff Sullivan: Brewers, for one
Jeff Sullivan: Nationals, for two
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Rockies, for three
vince clortho: Boston was likely to start ERod in sport 4, owing to the fact that LA’s platooning has hit’ Mr Burns pinch affecting for Daryl Strawberry’ subject. Eovaldi’s been dynamite in the 8th anyway
Jeff Sullivan: Departing to guess the Dodgers perhaps have a pretty good meaning of what they’re doing. They merely haven’t hit for two games
Guest: Can you tell Ben his section on disbelieving WS administrators was huge?
Jeff Sullivan: He can read this when the transcript is posted
Airport Banana: Hey Jeff, due to Brewers-related baseball depression, I’ve predominantly bypassed the area, but I just wanted to drop in and thank you for a sason of conversations and berths. Always informative and interesting! Too, you will die at some spot in the next 70 years.
Jeff Sullivan: So will most of us! There’s freedom in being forgotten
Cesar: Nunez reached two homers off LHP all year. The theory that he makes Cora a genius and Roberts an brainles drives me nuts.
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t pay attention to people who are talking about such absolutes
Jeff Sullivan: It’s the siren song of certitude
Lou: Would the NBA Finals be recreation to watch if the commentators perpetually bemoaned 3 degree shooting, rapid bursts, and the wide open modern play?
Jeff Sullivan: I get the idea of having player know-how in the broadcast kiosk. But the experience of representing 25 years ago makes extremely limited compared to the game’s modern age. It’s a completely different athletic. A program should want to aspect someone who’s either still frisking, or is at least recently retired
Jeff Sullivan: Chris Archer is so good. If only he weren’t, you are familiar with, a current starting pitcher
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure it’s not something he wants to do, but guess if John Smoltz were Brandon McCarthy instead
Guest: Are Seattle residents as annoyed with tech employees( Amazon) as SF occupants are?
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t lives in Seattle, but yes
stever2 0: With Auctions related battles this postseason- I think it’s safe to conclude his injuries were real and not just trying to get him rest like tribes were thinking was probable. How do you think this will affect him next year? Will remain in your opinion get him ok or is it something that could be really big next year?
Jeff Sullivan: It’s worth noting that, historically, Sale’s worst month has been September, and his second-worst month has been August
Jeff Sullivan: Still good months! Relatively speaking. But there’s real reason to believe that Chris Sale just wears down over such courses of seven+ months of regular pitching
Jeff Sullivan: Whatever’s going on with him now, I thoughts it won’t ask surgery — he’ll residue and be okay by the spring. We checked some 95 s and 96 s the last time out. But I don’t know if Sale’s built to excel in the playoffs, uttered how much pitching is done ahead of October. Perhaps the Red Sox could skip starts or shorten his outings
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Will the Angels move to Portland?
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, but I do think they’re the most likely campaigner of the three (?) that’ve been discussed
Grover: If they miss out on Harper/ Machado could you verify the Dodgers applying their budget on sucking a big contract like Stanton or Grienke?
Jeff Sullivan: I could see them making a play for Greinke long before I could see them making a play for Stanton. Don’t think they wanted to go contract on the books
Jeff Sullivan: Greinke has three more times. Stanton has nine
Jack: Do you think we’ll ever verify any mega prospects with the dances to threaten to not report to Triple-A and/ or challenge a trade in instances where they’re clearly being kept in the adolescents for service time manipulation? Teams won’t do it if they don’t feel it’s worth noting, and the way to draw them feel that lane may be to draw them feel like they’re risking breaking their relationship with the player
Jeff Sullivan: All it would make is one player, but I don’t think we’ll see anything beyond what we see now — a exasperated statement from the worker, some croak, and a threat of a grudge. A actor precisely doesn’t have this is something that leverage, under the current structure, and the same participate too wouldn’t just wanted to upset his employer when he’s so close to representing his debut. More and more, I presume actors know how these thoughts duty. There are effectively seven years of squad ascertain , not six
Jeff Sullivan: But I do think there’s a flicker of hope that service-time manipulation is in some way addressed in a forthcoming CBA. Try to snip this in the bud , now that these maneuvers are coming harder and harder to hide or explain away
Stevil: Hey Jeff, I’m curious if you think a exchange of Kyle Seager for Wil Myers might make sense. As I understand it, Seager’s club option would become a player option if he’s traded, so the money concerned would be about the same. San Diego would get a better defensive alternative for 3B, Seattle would get an modernize at 1B or a possible alternative for the purposes of an outfield reces. Who says no?
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s impossible, and I do think there would be some sum of interest in Seager from the San Diego side, but Seager is three years older than Myers, and he’s coming off a seemingly worse season. The Clergyman would be get older and not that much better, and then the Navigators would also be left without a third baseman
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you could build something* around* Seager and Myers, but the odds are better that Seager will time have to try to person it out in Seattle
Nelson: Max Muncy has a wRC+ of 141 vs lefties with a 255/361/ 529 route. What more could dave Roberts possible wishing?
Jeff Sullivan: I suppose the Dodger don’t believe that Muncy’s statistics indicate his true talent
Jeff Sullivan: His strikeout rate did jump almost ten percentage points in the last half, and it’s gone up again in the playoffs. 20 strikeouts in 46 playoff plateful appearances
Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps the Dodger are wrong, but I think they’ve finished Muncy isn’t the excellent matchup against the largest proportion of playoff-caliber pitching
Ross: What do you think the possibilities are that Harper could indicate with a surprise squad like when Greinke signed with Arizona? Who do you think it could be? Let’s say a “surprise team” is anyone outside of WSH, NYY, PHI, CHC, LAD, SF
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say 0.5% hazard he mansions with the Marlins, and 1.5% risk he ratifies with the Padres
Jeff Sullivan: That’s not based on any inside information. Just a duo of longshot hunches
Ian Kinsler: Am I coming benched tonight?
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t Holt generally gleans the start against Buehler regardless?
Dustin: What’s the worst happen who are able to happens to Ryan Madson: Being inserted into another high-leverage place the coming week, or being forced to ingest a handful of sugar corn?
Jeff Sullivan: Those are both wonderful things who are able to happen
Jeff Sullivan: You have presented a preference between two wonderful things
Tim: Do you think Edwin Jackson could call every MLB team he’s played for without any hesitancy or ever having to stop and think?
Jeff Sullivan: Nope
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact I learned from Ben Lindbergh this morning: Edwin Jackson ranks second on the all-time register of major-league teammates!
Jeff Sullivan: He’d maybe go up to firstly if he signed with a new golf-club this winter
John: Any envisages on the managerial hires so far?
Jeff Sullivan: Baldelli seems like the most interesting of the four, but in all honest I know extremely limited about the managers who ever managing
Jeff Sullivan: Even having talked with strike writers and team beings over the years, I don’t think anyone knows what to procreate of a manager
Bruce: Pitching tipping has supplanted Pitch framing as the least interesting thing I obstruct assuring sections about and not reading
Jeff Sullivan: On the one paw, I think you’re doing yourself a disservice — these can be interesting subjects
Jeff Sullivan: On the other entrust, yeah
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think pitch-tipping roughly ever explains why a chap is having a hard time. I think it’s almost always just bad pitching
Jeff Sullivan: But, whatever. Some musicians believe in it, and it is possible to recreation to break the video if there’s actually something notable to be found
Stevil: How is Dansby Swanson not a finalist for a Gold Glove?
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know — I don’t know why Galvis is up there — but Ahmed ought to win it anyway
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect Crawford has the developing precedent, but Ahmed is special
Ryan: Hi Jeff. I am inquisitive, what is your ZIPs win probability for the Dodger in video games today?
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. I don’t feed ZiPS!
Jeff Sullivan: But our scoreboard sheet currently makes the Dodgers at 59% https :// www.fangraphs.com/ livescoreboard.aspx? date= 2018 -1 0-26
Jeff Sullivan: That includes the home-field advantage
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: What moniker should the Seattle hockey team adopt?
Jeff Sullivan: Canucks
Tyler: How do you stop the Red Sox when they’re at at-bat with two outs? Better more, how do you stop them at all?
Jeff Sullivan: You hurl best available tars you can pitch and you assume that the Red Sox aren’t magic
Jeff Sullivan: One of their best two-out hitters so far in the playoffs has been Christian Vazquez. That’s the very description of random noise
Jeff Sullivan: Perfectly no questioning that the Red Sox hitters have come up vast. But if you’re a Dodgers pitcher, you just have to treat them like they’re normal. They’re good, and they’re normal
stever2 0: Hasn’t Grandal cracks himself going into Free Agency this year?
Jeff Sullivan: Nope
Jeff Sullivan: Grandal hasn’t thumped in the playoffs. But Grandal has always depicted huge pitch-framing ratings, and he’s always had a triple-digit wRC+
Jeff Sullivan: He seems like an above-average defensive catcher, and the league-average catcher this season had a wRC+ of 84. Mike Zunino territory
Jeff Sullivan: There have long been moans about Grandal’s game-calling, this is something that is true, but no one’s going to be too concerned about a few quitted pitches
Nihilist Jeff Sullivan: I understand your books are disappointed that the offseason is nearly upon us. Alas, do not desperation. The handout of death is complying with shortly. Do you think Daniel Murphy is likely to land a starting chore?
Jeff Sullivan: Murphy will get a job. Too good of a hitter, and you can blunt his defensive drawbacks through aggressive shifting
Jeff Sullivan: Now, given that he turns 34 on April 1, I don’t think he’s going to make a major sprinkle. But he deserves as numerous plateful forms as he can stay healthful for
Peter: Isn’t it a bit disheartening that in deciding the championship, one of the bigger storylines for this weekend is the DH slot? Any occasion this is fixed in next CBA?
Jeff Sullivan: The universal DH is inevitable. There is no stopping it. No substance how much you howl
Jeff Sullivan:( Not you, specifically, Peter)
Jeff Sullivan: As for this particular year, it’s not like this is coming as a astound. This is how it’s always been. Didn’t stop the Red Sox from acquiring three World Series in ten years with David Ortiz
Jeff Sullivan: And not every NL club is as built to slot in a DH in the AL ballpark as the Dodgers
tb. 25: Granted the recent director hires, where do you think the Monster start?
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for that defer. Had to do some quick Googling
Jeff Sullivan: Sure seems like, one nature or the other, the Giant “il go to” steer into the analytical era
Jeff Sullivan: Bloom, Ng, Sawdaye, McLeod — this isn’t an exhaustive list of the candidates, but you don’t see a Melvin among them
Jeff Sullivan: At first blush, the Monster aren’t that plea a discern, since the organization is in poverty-stricken chassis. But the fan locate is caring, the ownership is supportive, the field is beautiful, and San Francisco offers its quality of living. The Whale should be able to have their pick of the litter
Jeff Sullivan: Aside from David Stearns, who the Brewers didn’t let them interview, for obvious reasons
Dan: Hi Jeff! I’m wondering about the egregious messages reporters use to describe good moves, like “dirty”, ” nasty” and “filthy”. Do you know where this comes from? And are there any others I’ve missed?( I feel like I’ve heard someone drop ” disgusting” in there at the least formerly .)
Jeff Sullivan: The Dickson Baseball Dictionary might be of some utility here
Jeff Sullivan: A hitter respectfully calls an excellent pitcher “filthy, ” a expression that progressed out of common adjectives from ten years ago: “nasty” and “dirty.”
Jeff Sullivan: Early guess: it’s all playing on the double-meaning of “nasty”
Jeff Sullivan: But there is much deeper to mine, here
maineball: Do you know who the person is to reach out to if someone wanted to tar an article impression for the Hardball Times?
Jeff Sullivan: Meg Rowley
vivalajeter: Do you think the sports-writing macrocosm was somewhat relieved that Kim Ng didn’t get the Mets’ GM job? It would lessen the LOLMets narrative, for panic of being sexist.
Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, the internet has schooled me that sexism is rampant
Jeff Sullivan: For another thing , no matter who the Mets hire, they’re still going to have their ownership, which is now being* genuinely* at the core of the LOLMets phenomenon
Guest: Brandon Woodruff looks pretty legit right? Lots of Ks and SwStr of 10.4 % w/ o postseason numbers
Jeff Sullivan: I see the playoffs actually facilitated his occurrence to get up to 100 -1 50 MLB innings next season. Good-looking pitcher; one of their better internal spin options
Guest: Speaking of which, is there postseason fluctuating disturb figures anywhere?
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball Savant is your best bet
HappyFunBall: re: Baldelli. When’s the last term a crew had a manager who was younger than some of his actors?
Jeff Sullivan: AJ Hinch was 35 when he took over the Diamondbacks
Jeff Sullivan: That crew included a 37 -year-old Tony Clark!
Jeff Sullivan: And, very briefly, a 41 -year-old Tom Gordon
Stevil: Oakland doesn’t have a lot on the books for 2019, but they have a batch of pits on their pitching personnel. Could you interpret Dustin Fowler moved for help in that department? Would Mike Leake make some gumption, perhaps with a releiver tossed in?
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the A’s are quite yet ready to move on from Fowler, because I don’t think they’re quite yet ready to only entrust the long-term CF position to Laureano
Jeff Sullivan: Luzardo is coming soon. Puk and Cotton should return somewhere around midseason from Tommy John. The unit protection is really good. The A’s are going to bolster their gyration, almost without question, but I’m not sure they’re going to make an impact move in that regard
Jeff Sullivan: And while Leake would help the A’s, he likewise facilitates the Mariners, who are also pitching-thin. Don’t know if the Mariners are going to start selling, yet
Guest: BaseRuns removes cluster blessing from squad action. But would a more top heavy team like the Red Sox be more likely to Cluster their feeds then a more deep squad like the Dodgers?
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s been mostly about seizure hitting. In low-pitched/ medium-leverage status, the Dodgers were firstly in wRC +, and the Red Sox were third. But in high-leverage situations, the Red Sox were third, and the Dodgers were 21 st
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why that they are able to regard a top-heavy crew over a deeper unit. You can’t really manually administer your high-leverage opportunities
Trea Turner: Hi Jeff! Feels like it’s time for you to write your annual upright about how good Rendon is.
Jeff Sullivan: He’s so good
Jeff Sullivan: One-tenth among all qualified hitters this season in wRC+
Jeff Sullivan: Same WAR as Manny Machado
Jeff Sullivan: Anthony Rendon is a major reason why, Harper or no Harper, the Nationals are going to stay competitive
Jeff Sullivan: Every unit bids it could have an Anthony Rendon
Jason N: In a swap of bad squad fits, would the Padres need to add a sweetener in a Wil Myers( bad place fit) for Zack Greinke( bad contract fit) sell? What would that sweetener look like?
Jeff Sullivan: What are the Diamondbacks doing with Myers? They have Goldschmidt at first, and they have Peralta/ Souza in the outfield corners
Jeff Sullivan: I know Souza didn’t have a great year, but that’s not a good reason to gully him
Jeff Sullivan: And Wil Myers is not a center fielder
Ned: Where are the most likely landing smudges for Maikel Franco? Seems like his time in Philly is up.
Jeff Sullivan: I, uh
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really know
Jeff Sullivan: Vampires might like him, but they have Candelario
Jeff Sullivan: Angels might like him, but they have Cozart and Fletcher for 2B/ 3B
Jeff Sullivan: Franco isn’t a player who’ll be in a lot of demand
Jeff Sullivan: If you reaaaaaaaaaaally squint, perhaps he fits on the Padres, but he doesn’t do much for them
Lunar verLander: When was the last epoch watching a baseball game legitimately accentuated you out?
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Game 7, Cubs/ Indians
Jeff Sullivan: It would be easy to point to Game 5, Dodgers/ Astros, but I found that tournament more funny than stressful
Jeff Sullivan: Cubs/ Indians was magic
A cat: It seems like Kershaw will no longer be “Kershaw”. What kind of contract is he worth?
Jeff Sullivan: The calls he has left on his consider. Right now I don’t think he opts out
bob pollard’s no hitter: Who are some surprising high tip potential craft nominees that might come available over the winter?
Jeff Sullivan: Compensate attention to the Mariners, who might conceivably blow it up and move Paxton/ Diaz/ Haniger
Jeff Sullivan: Might be the most interesting team to keep an eye on
Jeff Sullivan: Diamondbacks are in a similar ship, and in theory they might look to move Goldschmidt, Greinke, etc
Horrified A’s Fan: So, the A’s are looking at a hilariously stupid budget crunch. Simply saving this 2018 team together will likely race $90 mm, without crowding any major punctures. That’s overbudget. Will the A’s be the A’s and shop, say, Blake Treinen to affordably patch the rotation?
Jeff Sullivan: It seems like right now, factoring in arbitration calculates, the A’s are pegged for an opening-day payroll around $70 -7 5 million
Jeff Sullivan: You’re right that it would take extra money to hold Lucroy, Cahill, Familia, etc
Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t see a Treinen move happening. I think they realise how important he can be, and they don’t have a suitable replacement yet
Lee: Who shuts in Boston next season?
Jeff Sullivan: I can see them either re-signing Kimbrel or making a play for Britton
Left Field Sucks: Schwarber for Merrifield?
Jeff Sullivan: I can see the contention, but Schwarber isn’t the easiest fit on the Royals’ present roster, plus he’s down to three years of sorority restraint. Three times got a lot, but the Royals are perhaps focusing more on six- and seven-year chaps at the moment
Jeff Sullivan: They’re not at all likely to be good while Schwarber is still in his arb years
2-D: Do you think the Indians bring back any of Brantley, Miller, or Allen?
Jeff Sullivan: I see Brantley is more likely than the other two
PD: Which of these three will have the best profession? Manuel Margot, Albert Almora, or Harrison Bader?
Jeff Sullivan: Margot, then Bader, then Almora
Jeff Sullivan: Almora, granted, once won a World Series
Jeff Sullivan: So it depends on how you formulate it
Dazed and Disorient: How amazingly entertaining would it be if Clayton Kershaw attracts a 2007 -ARod and opts out of his contract in the middle of the world serial ??
Jeff Sullivan: Would’ve been funnier if it happened after a reigning begins in Game 1
Jeff Sullivan: As is, it would be a hell of a bet on himself after what happened!
Jeff Sullivan: What a motivator it would be for the rest of the series
tolec: did anyone movement a study on relationship between breath rapidity/ attitude and knuckle missile success? a immediate examine cyberspace me the following https :// www.fantasylabs.com/ essays/ knuckleball-pitchers-better-wind- …
Jeff Sullivan: We mostly have no information on surface-level wind conditions
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much nothing at all
Guest: What unit takes a risk on Sonny Gray? Do you think he transitions into the bullpen?
Jeff Sullivan: If the Mariners don’t want to tear down, Gray would be one interesting buy-low option
Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably a little expensive for a return to the A’s
Jeff Sullivan: I do wonder what the Astros could do with him, given the opportunity
Ed: What is the likelihood of a Wil Myers market this off-season?
Jeff Sullivan: 25%?
Baseball Guy: What do you think the Twins are picturing wrt Buxton? Is he in the doghouse enough in order to be allowed to cash him in for what they can get? He’d like fine in CF in Colorado …
Jeff Sullivan: His stock “ve never had” lower. This seems like it would be a bleak time to trade him
Jeff Sullivan: For better or worse, I think he’s still part of the Twins’ hopeful formula
Chris: Is Chaim Bloom a well regarded analytics guy? If so why would he miss the Fits occupation?
Jeff Sullivan: Bloom is very highly regarded. He would want the Mets chore because there are only ever 30 GM importances at a time, and the Encounters would give one of them
Jeff Sullivan: He would also not require the Sees place if he got the impression he wouldn’t have enough sovereignty. It’s not like, as far as his occupation is referred, it’s Mets or nothing
Cesar: How much do you think Roberts is actually making all these decisions? Seems like Friedman and co would be taking a good amount of control
Jeff Sullivan: Everything is probably discussed in a group defining before video games ever begin. Every decision is talked about so as to get everyone on the same page
Lee: Is Fox really airing business in between tones now? Please tell me this isn’t the new normal.
Jeff Sullivan: Apparently they started doing it in last year’s World Series
Jeff Sullivan: It is the new normal
Jeff Sullivan: There’s zero incentive for Fox to go back. As they see it, they’re making more money, and the people who are watching aren’t about to turn it off
Dan: Can you explain to me the ambiguity of postseason stats? If both pitchers and hitters would generally be expected to have worse stats against better than average race, and playoff units represent better than average event, then one could reasonably expect both pitchers and hitters to be worse in the playoffs than they are in the regular season. Yet that can’t be true for both of them. What is the rational justification for this?
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to level with you: I’m stuck
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like the answer is actually pretty obvious, but in my current state of mind, I’m not able to get to the solution
Jeff Sullivan: And this is bothering me more than you’d thoughts, Dan
Reagan: that is interesting
Jeff Sullivan: I agree with you, Reagan!
umaga: Dan is interesting
Jeff Sullivan: Dan is interesting
pelkey: everyone collapses to what is might be called equivalent ability tier creation. probably everyone performs at around the average mlb production height?
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to continue thinking about this, but right now I have to wind down the chat
Jeff Sullivan: But I’m going to ask around so that I can try to help you out!
Jeff Sullivan: So for now, I need to get rolling
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same duration, and until then, be well and have great daytimes. Last-place weekend of baseball games coming up!
var SERVER_DATA= Object.assign( SERVER_DATA || , playeridArr: );
Read more: fangraphs.com