Posted by Dr-Pete

We want to fix things and believe we’re in control. When your house is filling with sea, you grab a pail. If there’s a defect in your ceiling, the bucket might help. If your sag is overflowing, the pail is agitating you from the real problem. If the river is overflowing, that distraction could be deadly.

When traffic is falling, it’s easy to panic and focus on what you can control. Traffic isn’t merely a nice-to-have — it leans food on the table and the roof over your president that keeps the water out. In the hurry-up is resolved, though, we often don’t make the time to validate the problem we’re solving. Fixing the wrong problem is at best a waste of time and money, but at worst could deepen the crisis.

In any crisis, and especially a global one, the first question you need to ask is: is it time me, or is it the whole world? The rebuttal won’t magically solve your problems, but it can continue you from concluding costly mistakes and start you on the path to a answer. Let’s start with a fundamental issues 😛 TAGEND (1) Did your traffic truly cease?

My “fundamental” question might sound like a stupid question, especially given the wide impact of the COVID-1 9 pandemic, but it’s important to remember that traffic fluctuates all the time — there are weekends and seasonality and plain, old-fashioned regression to the mean. What goes up must come down, and as much as we’d like it is correct, business is not perpetually up and to the right.Using Google Analytics, let’s consider some methods we can validate a traffic quit. Here’s four weeks of GA data( March 1-28) for a site which was seriously impacted by COVID-1 9 😛 TAGEND

Given the known timeline of COVID-1 9( the WHO showed it a pandemic on March 11 ), this is about as clean-living a picture of a traffic drop in the presence of a known generate as you’re going to get. Most places are far messier. Even now, we’ve got the impact of weekends and day-to-day fluctuations. One quick mode to get a cleaner view is to summarize the data by week( make sure your date-range embraces full weeks, or this data will be skewed ).

The trend is much clearer now. In a two week period, this site lost more than half of its traffic. I’m restricting the timeline for clarity, but as we assemble more data, we can validate the trend pretty easily. The graph above clothes all traffic informants. From an SEO perspective, let’s supplemented in a traffic segment for Google traffic 😛 TAGEND

This graph is just eight data points, but it tells us a lot. First, we can clearly see the trend. Second, we can see that the trend is almost identical for both Google traffic and overall traffic. Third, we can see that this site is very dependent on Google for traffic. Don’t underestimate what you can learn from small data, if it’s the claim data.

This isn’t meant to be a GA primer, but let’s look at one last question: Is this traffic drop seasonal? Usually, your own industry experience and insight would come into play, but one speedy lane to distinguish this is to compare year-over-year traffic. One note: pair your full weeks so that you’re handling the same amount of weekdays vs weekends. In this case, I’ve changed the 2019 wander to the four full weeks of March 3-30 …

This isn’t the easiest graph to read, and I probably wouldn’t threw it in a report to a client, but you can see from the green and purple threads that both overall transaction and Google traffic for this area were relatively flat last year during March. This really does seem to be an odd situation. Even if we knew nothing about the context and COVID-1 9, we could tell from just a few minutes of analysis that something serious is going on here.

(1b) Did your higher-rankings throw?

As a pursuit marketer, and given that we’ve clearly quantified a Google traffic stop, the next question is whether this drop-off were attributed to a loss of ranks( we’ll get to other explanations in a moment ). In Moz Pro, one rapid room to assess overall weekly research visibility is to use either the main view under “Rankings” or go to the “Competition” tab. I like the competitive deem, because you can quickly see if any conversions impacted your broader manufacture …

I’ve simplified this view a little bit( and removed the site’s and competitors’ refers for privacy rationalizations ), but the basic story is clear — neither the area in question nor its entrants seemed to have any drop in visibility during March.

For a richer judgment, go back to the “Rankings” tab and adopt “Rankings”( instead of “Search Visibility”) from the drop-down. You’ll meet a graph that gapes something like this …

This visualization makes some going used to, but it contains a resource of information. The disallows represent total ranking keywords/ phrases, and the colouring blocks register you the grading straddle( verify the legend ). Now we can see that overall standings have been relatively stable, with even some big increases in the #1-3 bucket.

If your detail was related to Google Analytics, you can also overlay traffic during the same period, which is shown by the dark gray line. Dual-scale diagrams can get tricky, but this visualization really makes it clear that there’s a mismatch between the traffic drop for this site and their pursuit rankings.

(2) Did Google got something ?!

Usually, when we ask[ expect/ shout/ sob] this issue, we signify “Did Google do something to the algorithm to clear my life forlorn? ” We can argue about whether Google is trying to realize their own lives deplorable at another time( preferably, when the bars re-open ), but the core question is valid. Did Google change the algorithmic rules in a way that’s negatively impacting your site?

For large-scale algorithm modernizes, you can check our own Google Algorithm History page. For smaller/ daily revises, you can check our MozCast research job. While having a gut-check against major changes can be very useful, the messy truth is that Google standings are a real-time phenomenon that’s deepening minute-by-minute. In 2018 alone, Google reported 3,234 “improvements” to search.

Keep in psyche that all Google algorithm tracking tools are based, to some degree, on fluctuations in higher-rankings. In our instance situation, we’re not watching grading alters. Let’s pretend, though, that “were having” seen a traffic stop with a correspond ranking lowering, and we’re trying to determine if it’s only us or if something altered with Google.

Here’s a graph of MozCast data from my analysis of the January 2020 Core Update …

In this case, we’ve got a pretty clear three-day period of ranking fluctuations. If our traffic plummeted over this period, it’s not absolute proof that an algorithm modernize shall be responsible, but it’s a solid, educated guess and a useful starting point.

Let’s look at the two weeks around when COVID-1 9 was declared a world pandemic …

I’ve deterred the same scale and 30 -day average reference( from a relatively quiet season early this year ). Note that algorithmic activity( i.e. ranking flow) is room up compared to the period before and after the January Core Update. One daytime( March 18) doesn’t even fit on the scale of the original diagram and came in at 104 degF on MozCast.

What does all of this planned? It’s possible that Google is changing the algorithm rapidly to address the broader changes in the world, but I strongly suspect that the world itself is impacting this flow. Locates are changing rapidly, supplementing and removing produces and content, information informants have dramatically shifted their coverage, and some customs are closing entirely. On top of that, we’re seeing an amazing shift in searcher and consumer behavior.

Algorithm flux can be a useful answer to the question “Is it only me, or is it Google? ” during normal times, but all that it’s telling us right now is that the world has turned upside-down. While that’s an accurate assessment, it’s not particularly helpful. If you’d like to hear more about the impact of COVID-1 9 on Google positions, check out “SEOs talk COVID-1 9 inquiry disruption” from Barry Schwartz with myself, Marie Haynes, Olga Andrienko, and Mordy Oberstein.

If traffic has ceased, but positions haven’t, it’s also probable that the behaviours of searchers has changed. We are able to obtain some revelations into this by applying Google Search Console. Here’s the graph of total sounds for our pattern site from March 1-28( corresponding with the GA data) …

As expected, total clicks on Google decisions present roughly the same trend as Google organic traffic in GA. Total sounds are a function of two variables, though:( 1) pursuit thoughts, and( 2) click-through rate( CTR ). Let’s look at those individually. Here’s the diagram of total impress for the same time period …

Now we’re getting somewhere — there’s an overall drop in thoughts. This isn’t just about the lesson site, but searcher behavior before they even view or click on that site. People are scouring less for the phrases that drive freight to our pattern website. Eventually, let’s look at CTR …

CTR has also lowered, even a bit steeper than impressions. This is a bit harder to interpret. Knowing what we know, it’s likely that people are clicking little because of overall lack in the best interests. This is determined in accordance with the COVID-1 9 scenario. People are less likely to be looking for the service this area offers. On the other hand, it could be that something about the site or the competitive landscape has changed that’s driving down CTR.

If you realize a CTR drop without a correspond thought discontinue, review recent changes to the site, specially modifies that have been able to impact what’s displayed in search results( including your TITLE labels and META descriptions ). In such cases, though, it’s reasonable to assume that we’re looking at an overall drop in demand.

(3) Has the world gone mad?

Spoiler alert: yes, yes it has.

The Google Search Console data above has already suggested that we’re seeing a shift in the wider world and searcher behaviour, but if you want to get outside of your own data, you can explore the world a bit with Google Vogue. For example, here’s a Google Trends search for “movie tickets” for March 1-28 …

Not amazingly, searcher interest in movie tickets diminished sharply after the COVID-1 9 eruption. People who aren’t going to movies aren’t going to be searching for showtimes and ticket prices. Google Trend data can be spotty in the long-tail, and we can’t certainly attribute current trends to an occurrence, but non-brand veers are a good supporting data point for whether your traffic lower is isolated to your site or is impacting your broader industry.

One final tip-off — everything discussed in this post can also be used to explore a traffic increase. Even during COVID-1 9, traffic has gone up for numerous topics and locates. For example, here’s the Google Trends data for “how to cut hair” from the same March 1-28 time period …

Whether or not thinning your own hair is a good idea, people are certainly presenting more interest in special topics( I declare I’ve watched a couple of YouTube videos myself ). We don’t generally dive depth into traffic increases — it’s too easy to only sit back and take the approval. I think this is a big mistake. Understanding whether a traffic increase was conducted in accordance with converts you attained or broader grocery switches can help you understand what you’ve done right so that you can replicate that success.

The big picture is everything

Over the last few years, I’ve heard more people say things like “I don’t care about traffic, I care about conversions! ” or “I don’t care about Google positions, as long as I’m getting traffic! ” Our gradual move toward bottom-of-funnel metrics offsets ability — we’re all trying to make a living. Taken to extreme, though, we lose irreplaceable message. Focusing on transitions is certainly better than focusing on “hits” a la 1998, but no single metric tells the whole story.

Let’s say that the only thing you track is leadings. Produces are where the money is. Marketings are up, induces are up, ages are good. Great. Inevitably, accident strikes( even if it’s a minor cataclysm ), and your leads-in drop. What do you do? You’ve cut off your ability to read anything but the final chapter of the storey. You know how it points, but you don’t know how you got there. Without understanding the itinerary from extends back to calls back to rankings back to marks, you’re not going to see the whole story, and you’re not going to know where things went wrong.

Even when times are good, this approach is short-sighted. Sales-focused culture creates a bia to celebrate the wins and not ask too many questions. If traffic is going up, why is it going up? What content or keywords are driving that traffic? What industry trends are driving that traffic? If you can answer those questions, you can replicate success. If you can’t, then you’re going to have to start from scratch as soon as the celebration ends( and the celebration ever culminates ).

It may be cold comfort to know that your part industry or the whole world is suffering with you, but I hope that this process at least frustrates you from fixing the wrong things and procreating costly mistakes. Ideally, this process can help you uncover areas that may be trending upward or at least help you focus your time and fund on what’s working.

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